Facts and Perceptions: Venezuela in Limbo

Artificial intelligence and digital networks have made it very complicated to distinguish facts from fictions. Today more than ever, facts are losing relevance. Perceptions are sought to be imposed by those who handle the sophisticated plots of propaganda and psychological operations. In this context, we have witnessed the fall of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores into a situation that is still confusing and full of uncertainty.

The facts we know are few and clear. The former Chavista president and his wife are imprisoned in a jail in New York and will be tried on charges of narco-terrorism. United States military and police forces invaded the capital of Venezuela, arrested the president and the first lady, bombed military and port facilities, and emerged almost unscathed and without casualties. The Chavista regime remains in place. It is presided over by Delcy Rodríguez (former vice-president). Jorge Rodríguez, brother of the acting president, remains at the head of the National Assembly (Venezuelan parliament), Diosdado Cabello (second in the political hierarchy) remains minister of security, and Vladimir Padrino López remains the minister of defence.

The perceptions are multiple, diffuse, and contradictory. Trump announced that the United States will control Venezuela. We do not know how or for how long. The announcement leaves a bitter taste and takes us back to times of colonies and protectorates. However, it is not clear who will be in charge of controlling the country or under what type of conditions. What is certain is that Chavismo, which filled its mouth with the words independence and sovereignty, has promoted through action and omission the loss of Venezuelan sovereignty. It allowed an invasion by the Cuban Fidelista regime to implement its franchise of social control, snitching, and internal espionage. It opened its arms to Iranian fundamentalists. It gave refuge to Colombian terrorists from the FARC and the ELN. It bought Russian military junk, compromising the country's capacity to defend itself. And it indebted itself to the Chinese, who suck up the little oil they extract.

Another perception that has taken hold is that, in addition to being corrupt and violators of human rights, Venezuelan military officers are highly incompetent. United States helicopters, planes, drones, and troops entered Venezuelan territory as if it were nothing. There are two hypotheses. One: if the Venezuelan military preferred not to resist because everything had already been agreed with the Americans so that they would take Maduro and his wife, then the perception is that they are "traitors" to the homeland. The other possibility is that they are so inept that they could do nothing against the onslaught of the US military.

Now comes a process of political readjustment. We do not know what that implies. Many open questions remain without answers yet. There should be elections called by the acting president according to the constitution. That electoral process should have guarantees such as a completely reformed National Electoral Council. It should be open to international observation to all competent organisations. And all Venezuelans who meet the legal requirements should be allowed to run for the presidency, including María Corina Machado. No one can claim today that all that will happen in a reasonable period of time.

The perception is that the Chavista regime remains in place. It may be weakened and with more distrust among its key pieces, whose levels of paranoia must have increased since the United States invasion. But we have still not seen any change in its policy of terror and corruption. The majority of political prisoners are still in the regime's jails. Although they released a few people in December, the conditions of incommunication and mistreatment remain in force. In addition, Chavismo has turned Venezuela into the "paradise" of money laundering. All the money that the Chavistas have stolen, all the drug money, the money from gold and other mineral extraction, and the money from human trafficking is laundered with total impunity in Venezuela under the protection of the regime now presided over by Delcy Rodríguez.

We must observe and wait to know how to distinguish between the facts and the fictions that swarm the digital networks. It is worth remembering an old saying from General Eleazar López Contreras, president of the transition when the dictator Juan Vicente Gómez died in 1935: "Calm and good sense."