Trump Begins to Tame the Chavista Regime

Things are starting to become a bit clearer in the confusing situation in Venezuela. The Venezuelan national oil company PDVSA has confirmed that it is in negotiations to sell oil to the United States government. Donald Trump had previously announced that his government would buy between 30 and 50 million barrels from PDVSA, which it would resell on the international market. Trump also said that he would be the one to manage that money, meaning he would not pay PDVSA directly. It appears, at least from the silence of the acting president herself, Delcy Rodríguez, and from the absence of details about payment methods in the oil company's statement, that the "new" Chavista government has accepted the conditions imposed by the President of the United States.

We do not know the impact that the U.S. government's decision will have on the Venezuelan economy. Obviously, PDVSA is not in a position to supply that amount of oil in the short term. Its production capacity is severely diminished. Surely this will imply that other U.S. oil companies, in addition to Chevron which already operates under limited conditions in Venezuela, will return to operate in the South American country. However, these companies will take their time before investing there, as the conditions of stability, legal security, and personal safety are not yet in place.

Furthermore, the effect of this measure imposed by Trump on the flow of foreign currency to Venezuela will be relatively marginal. The money, according to what the U.S. President said, will not go into the coffers of Delcy Rodríguez's government. That will restrict access to dollars, which will affect an economy like Venezuela's, highly dependent on imports. This could lead to a greater devaluation of the bolívar, the national currency. According to the official market as of January 7, 2026, 311 bolívares were needed to buy one dollar. In the so-called "parallel" market, on the same date, the currency was at 760 bolívares. There are analysts who project that soon the devaluation in the unofficial market could reach 1000 bolívares per dollar. That would have a brutal consequence on the pockets of the vast majority of Venezuelans due to the hyperinflation it would generate.

Trump's measure of buying and selling Venezuelan oil without paying Rodríguez's government directly is a sign that the acting president is obeying orders from the U.S. government. At least the language adopted by her herself (she has confirmed her willingness to cooperate with the U.S.) and by PDVSA's own statement expresses a conciliatory tone. By the way, a tone very different from the aggressive one in the last speeches of the now deposed and imprisoned President Nicolás Maduro and other figures of the Chavista regime like Diosdado Cabello, still minister of security and who controls the paramilitary groups known as “colectivos."

Many issues remain pending. Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there is a three-phase program for Venezuela (stabilization, reconstruction and transition), the truth is that there are no timelines or details about what this concretely implies. It is also not clear whether the release of political prisoners will happen, although there have been rumors of the dismantling of one of the detention and torture centers in Caracas known as El Helicoide. There is still no official information on this, although Trump himself said that "a torture center in Caracas" was going to be dismantled.

We are still very far from the disappearance of the Chavista regime. It will not be an easy process. The most radical factions of Chavismo, led by Diosdado Cabello, seem to be the biggest obstacle. The coming days will tell us whether Trump's taming of Chavista authoritarianism that has begun will yield more results.