Venezuela update: Trump imposes his agenda, Delcy Rodríguez obeys

It has been a month since U.S. troops, planes, and helicopters entered Venezuelan territory and extracted the man who called himself president and his first lady, Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores, respectively. And in less than a month, Chavismo in power—represented by the duo of Delcy Rodríguez (interim president) and her brother Jorge Rodríguez (president of the parliament)—has been approving Trump's agenda for Venezuela. In the National Assembly, the reform of the hydrocarbons law promoted by Hugo Chávez was voted on almost unanimously, with only one abstention. This reform provides much greater facilities for private investment in the oil sector, making more flexible the royalty and tax regime, and opening the door to transnational oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, ConocoPhillips, and many others. Now Chavismo has become the champion of privatizing the oil business, when once its doctrine prescribed that private companies' participation should be limited to minority stakes and with a tax scheme that reached over 90% on revenues and profits.

Last Friday, interim president Rodríguez announced during the opening of the judicial year at the Supreme Court of Justice that she would propose a general amnesty law to pardon all those accused, imprisoned, and persecuted for political reasons during what she herself described as the period of “political violence” that Venezuela has experienced since 1999, when Chavismo came to power. We do not yet know the details of the law, but it announces a 180-degree policy shift, since Nicolás Maduro himself had refused to sign an amnesty law approved by the opposition-controlled National Assembly in 2016. The Chavista Rodríguez is now the promoter of a general amnesty and the closure of the Helicoide prison, the emblematic center of torture, abuses, and extortions of the infamous period that Venezuela has lived under the multiple versions of the autocracy inaugurated by Hugo Chávez and his disciples.

The decisions of the Rodríguez siblings, which go against everything that supposedly leftist and nationalist Chavista rhetoric proposed, are interpreted in various ways. Some believe they are dismantling the Chavista regime so they can emerge unscathed from the processes that will be opened against Chavismo's political leaders, their officials, and even operators who posed as “opposition” for violations of human rights, corruption, and all kinds of abuses. Others think they are just buying time in a “leopard strategy” (gatopardismo), so that everything changes but remains the same. Those who suspect the honesty of the Rodríguez duo (implicated in cases of corruption, human rights violations, and electoral fraud) say they are betting that Trump will lose the midterm elections in November. This would mean Trump would stop focusing on Venezuela, and Chavismo could return to its old ways.

Everything is happening very quickly. There are still many pending issues (e.g., the return of exiled opposition politicians, the dismantling of Chavista paramilitary bodies, changes to the National Electoral Council). According to the Venezuelan constitution, the National Assembly should call presidential elections six months after the permanent absence of the president of the republic is declared. If this constitutional norm is applied, elections should be called in July of this year, since Maduro left the presidency vacant in January. However, Chavismo still controls the parliament and the Supreme Court of Justice, which only issues rulings to defend the interests of Delcy Rodríguez and her brother Jorge. In Venezuela, there is no separation of powers, so it would not be surprising if Rodríguez's interim presidency is extended until the end of Maduro's presidential term, which would end in 2031. If the siblings who control political power today get their way, they could manage to keep the Chavista regime almost intact without making profound changes. A light Chavismo, but as corrupt and inefficient as ever. This story is not over.